CoreLogic reported that for every two homes available for sale today, there is still one in the "shadow," with the current shadow inventory as of January 2012 estimated at 1.6 million units. The numbers, approximately the same level reported in October 2011, represents a 6-months' supply, down from the 1.8 million units, or 8-months' supply, reported last January.
"Currently, the flow of new, seriously delinquent (90 days or more) loans into the shadow inventory has been offset by the roughly equal flow of distressed sales (short and real estate owned)," the company reported in its most recent release.
"Almost half of the shadow inventory is not yet in the foreclosure process," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Shadow inventory also remains concentrated in states impacted by sharp price declines and states with long foreclosure timelines."
"The shadow inventory remains persistent even though many other metrics of the housing market show signs of improvements. In some hard-hit markets, the demand for REO and distressed property is now outstripping supply. As we move into what is traditionally the peak selling season for real estate, servicers will certainly be watching closely to see if now is the time to move more inventory out of the shadows," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO for CoreLogic.
CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs) that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders. Transition rates of "delinquency to foreclosure" and "foreclosure to REO" are used to identify the currently distressed non-listed properties most likely to become REO properties. Properties that are not yet delinquent, but may become delinquent in the future, are not included in the estimate of the current shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
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