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Market Data

Shadow inventory persists, CoreLogic reports

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Market Data
Tuesday, March 27, 2012

CoreLogic reported that for every two homes available for sale today, there is still one in the "shadow," with the current shadow inventory as of January 2012 estimated at 1.6 million units. The numbers, approximately the same level reported in October 2011, represents a 6-months' supply, down from the 1.8 million units, or 8-months' supply, reported last January.

"Currently, the flow of new, seriously delinquent (90 days or more) loans into the shadow inventory has been offset by the roughly equal flow of distressed sales (short and real estate owned)," the company reported in its most recent release.

"Almost half of the shadow inventory is not yet in the foreclosure process," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Shadow inventory also remains concentrated in states impacted by sharp price declines and states with long foreclosure timelines."

"The shadow inventory remains persistent even though many other metrics of the housing market show signs of improvements. In some hard-hit markets, the demand for REO and distressed property is now outstripping supply. As we move into what is traditionally the peak selling season for real estate, servicers will certainly be watching closely to see if now is the time to move more inventory out of the shadows," said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO for CoreLogic.

CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs) that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders. Transition rates of "delinquency to foreclosure" and "foreclosure to REO" are used to identify the currently distressed non-listed properties most likely to become REO properties. Properties that are not yet delinquent, but may become delinquent in the future, are not included in the estimate of the current shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.

Data Highlights:

  • As of January 2012, shadow inventory remained at 1.6 million units, or 6-months' supply and represented half of the 3 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or REO.
  • Of the 1.6 million properties currently in the shadow inventory, 800,000 units are seriously delinquent (3.1-months' supply), 410,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.6-months' supply) and 400,000 are already in REO (1.6-months' supply).
  • Florida, California and Illinois account for more than a third of the shadow inventory. The top six states, which would also include New York, Texas and New Jersey, account for half of the shadow inventory.
  • The shadow inventory is approximately four times higher than its low point (380,000 properties) at the peak of the housing bubble in mid-2006.
  • Despite 3 million distressed sales since January 2009, the period when home prices were declining at their fastest rate, the shadow inventory in January 2012 is at the same level as January 2009.
  • The shadow inventory is approximately half of the size of all visible inventory listings. For every two homes available for sale, there is one home in the "shadows."
  • The segment of borrowers that were 60+ days delinquent in the past but were "cured" and are now current on their payments is increasing. This figure was 7.2 percent in January 2012, up from 5.7 percent a year ago.
  • The total percent of borrowers who were ever 60+ days delinquent (irrespective of delinquency status today) increased to 15.5 percent in January 2012, up from 14.3 percent a year ago.
  • The highest concentration of shadow inventory is for loans with loan balances between $100,000 and $125,000. More importantly, while the overall supply of homes in the shadow inventory is declining versus a year ago, the declines are being driven by higher balance loans. For loans with balances of $75,000 or less, however, the shadow is still growing and is up 3 percent from a year ago.
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12 USC Section 2605 or Section 6 is titled Servicing of mortgage loans and administration of escrow accounts. It pertains to qualified written requests, notices of transfer of servicing and the administration of escrow accounts.
An arrangement that involves a person who is in a position to refer business as part of a real estate settlement service and who has an interest in a settlement services provider.

In the arrangement, the person, who has either an affiliate relationship with or a direct or beneficial ownership interest of more than one percent in a settlement services provider, directly or indirectly refers business to that provider or influences a consumer to select that provider.
An arrangement that involves a person who is in a position to refer business as part of a real estate settlement service and who has an interest in a settlement services provider.

In the arrangement, the person, who has either an affiliate relationship with or a direct or beneficial ownership interest of more than one percent in a settlement services provider, directly or indirectly refers business to that provider or influences a consumer to select that provider.
A mortgage disclosure that lists all estimated charges and fees associated with your loan. In addition to fees and charges, it will list your loan amount, mortgage rate, loan term and estimated monthly payment. Your escrows due at closing for insurance and taxes will also be outlined. Mortgage lenders are legally required to provide a GFE within three days of receiving your application.
A mortgage disclosure that lists all estimated charges and fees associated with your loan. In addition to fees and charges, it will list your loan amount, mortgage rate, loan term and estimated monthly payment. Your escrows due at closing for insurance and taxes will also be outlined. Mortgage lenders are legally required to provide a GFE within three days of receiving your application.
Under RESPA Section 2605(e)(1)(B), a qualified written request is a written correspondence that includes: 1) the name and account of the borrower, or has enough information to allow the servicer identify that information; and 2) a statement of the reasons for the belief of the borrower that the account is in error or provides sufficient detail to the servicer regarding other information sought by the borrower.

A QWR cannot be written on a payment coupon or other payment medium supplied by the servicer.
Under RESPA Section 2605(e)(1)(B), a qualified written request is a written correspondence that includes: 1) the name and account of the borrower, or has enough information to allow the servicer identify that information; and 2) a statement of the reasons for the belief of the borrower that the account is in error or provides sufficient detail to the servicer regarding other information sought by the borrower.

A QWR cannot be written on a payment coupon or other payment medium supplied by the servicer.
12 USC Section 2609 or Section 10 is titled Limitation on requirement of advance deposits in escrow accounts. It governs escrow accounts including notifications and statements to borrowers. Section 10 also sets out penalties for those who violate the section.
RESPA Section 3 provides that a thing of value includes any payment, advance, funds, loan, service or other consideration

Regulation X says thing of value includes: monies, things, discounts, salaries, commissions, fees, duplicate payments of a charge, stock, dividends, distributions of partnership profits, franchise royalties, credits representing monies that may be paid at a future date, the opportunity to participate in a money-making program, retained or increased earnings, increased equity in a parent or subsidiary entity, special bank deposits or accounts, special or unusual banking terms, services of all types at special or free rates, sales or rentals at special prices or rates, lease or rental payments based in whole or in part on the amount of business referred, trips and payment of another person’s expenses or reduction in credit against an existing obligation.
A form used by a settlement or closing agent itemizing all charges imposed on a borrower and seller in a real estate transaction. This form represents the closing transaction and provides each party with a complete list of incoming and outgoing funds. RESPA requires the HUD-1 to be used as the standard real estate settlement form in all transactions in the U.S. involving federally related mortgage loans.
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